Judge Roy Moore Leading in Alabama U.S. Senate Race; Republican Primary Election next Tuesday, August 15
By Paul Gattis
A poll conducted by a Louisiana firm over the weekend indicates that U.S. Sen. Luther Strange and U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks are in a “statistical tie” for the final spot in an expected Republican Senate primary runoff.
Former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore appears to be a “cinch” to make the runoff, according to the polling firm – JMG Analytics and Polling.
The poll results had Moore with 30 percent of the vote, followed by Strange with 22 percent and Brooks with 19. Other Senate candidates on the ballots collected 12 percent of the vote while 17 percent of those polled are undecided.
“For this poll, a landline sample of likely households (based on recent primary participation) for an automated poll was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Alabama, and there were 500 completed responses to 11 poll questions,” JMG stated in its poll summary.
The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday and the margin of error, with 95 percent confidence rate, was 4.4 percent, according to the summary.
State Sen. Trip Pittman was fourth in the poll with 6 percent.
The Republican and Democratic primaries are Aug. 15.
The tightening race between Strange and Brooks in the most recent poll represents a departure from trends suggested by other polls conducted earlier during the primary campaign.
- An automated poll of 426 likely Republican voters conducted July 31-Aug. 3 by RRH Elections had Moore leading with 31 percent, followed by Strange at 29 and Brooks at 18 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 5 percent.
- A random phone survey of 3,000 registered voters conducted July 24 by Raycom News Network and Mobile-based Strategy Research had Strange with 35 percent of the vote, Moore 33 and Brooks 16 with a margin of error of 2 percent.
- A poll conducted July 20-21 with a sample size of 500 likely GOP primary voters by Montgomery-based Cygnal, reported by Politico, had Strange at 33 percent percent, followed by Moore at 26 and Brooks at 16.
In the latest poll, Moore had a 53 percent “favorable” rating – far ahead of both Strange (35 percent) and Brooks (31 percent). Of the top three GOP candidates, Strange had the highest “unfavorable” rating at 50 percent, followed by Brooks at 43 percent and Moore at 34 percent.
“In summary,” the JMG poll states, “former Chief Justice Roy Moore appears to be a cinch for the September 26 runoff, while the other runoff slot is a close race between appointed incumbent Luther Strange (who is being hurt by the perceived connection to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) and Congressman Mo Brooks.”
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